BUSINESS CANADA: The lasting effects of Putin's war may be 'demand destruction' and fractured global trade
As buyers shy away from Russian oil, security concerns are reshaping
global economy
Shortly after Canada and other Western
democracies announced sanctions on Russia, the world heard a frightening
warning about the impact they would have — not just on Russia, but on
the global economy.
The warning came from Russia's deputy
prime minister, Alexander Novak, and its focus was the world price of oil.
"It is absolutely clear that a rejection
of Russian oil would lead to catastrophic consequences for the global
market," Novak said in a televised statement.
"The surge in prices would be
unpredictable," he warned. "It would be $300 per barrel, if not
more."
As the North American price of oil fell back
to about $100 this week, it was easy to scoff at the Russian
official's alarmist warning.
But while there are good reasons that oil
prices above $300 US are not in the cards, the invasion of Ukraine
has set in motion a series of events that will lead to a serious disruption of
the global economy — likely to affect Russia and Western
democracies long after the bombs have stopped falling in Ukraine.
There are two key parts of that disruption.
One is something called "demand destruction" — the move to
use less of the high-priced commodities produced by Russia. The other is a
new global quest for greater security in supply chains in a world
that has proven itself more volatile than most of us had thought just a few months
ago.
As representatives of the oil cartel OPEC
gather in Vienna on Thursday, and peace talks in Turkey offer glimmers of
hope that the killing of Ukrainian civilians in Vladimir Putin's reckless war
might end, the volatile price of oil has retreated again.
But even as Brent crude — the world oil
price used outside North America — reached toward $130 US a barrel,
experienced oil market watchers like longtime petroleum geologist and energy
analyst Art Berman said Novak's prediction was laughable.
"A Russian official's opinion about oil
price is worth as much as Donald Trump's opinion about results of the 2020 U.S.
election," quipped the Texas-based Berman in a recent email
conversation.
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